The impact of US-Russian competition on the future of political stability in Libya

Abstract

 This paper seeks to investigate the nature of the Libyan crisis that occurred since 2011 and is still ongoing. This period was dominated by a state of political and security instability, mostly due to the state of political division between the active currents in the Libyan crisis, to the point of the outbreak of civil wars between them, and their failure to build a central political system that monopolizes the practice of legitimate violence and imposes order through the legislative, executive and judicial components of this system. Their efforts to achieve the peaceful transfer of power through elections and the participation of the people in them failed. The intervention of external powers in the Libyan crisis and their conflicting interests contributed to fueling the division between local actors, as these powers supported local parties against each other, which fueled conflicts and fighting between them, and prevented the parties from reconciling and agreeing to resolve the crisis internally in a way that would enable holding elections and unifying authorities and institutions under a single national authority. The American and Russian intervention in Libya, the competition between them and the attempt to seize their interests come at the top of the list of international and regional powers threatening political stability in Libya. The American and Russian intervention in Libya is due to its geopolitical and economic importance for each of them. Libya's strategic location, its long coastline on the Mediterranean, and its huge reserves of energy resources have prompted each of the two countries to try to distance the other from Libya. This competition between them has negatively affected attempts to achieve political and security stability and reach local agreements to resolve this crisis. This topic was addressed through four axes, including the nature of the Libyan crisis and internal divisions between local parties, as well as the American intervention in Libya and its manifestations, then the Russian intervention and its manifestations, and finally the future of political stability through a forward-looking vision and the presentation of several possible future scenarios on which the Libyan political scene could be established and stabilized